Another budget show down?l

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0312/74662.htm

Will the republicans be able to pass a budget? Will the senate agree? My guess is they won't get close to passing this budget through the house much less the senate with out major revisions. Ryan is too willing to cut local funding for pet projects for his own people.

Rangel asks colleagues for help

This article is a good example of a representatives need for monetary support from their colleagues. New York Rep. Charles Rangel is facing a tough primary, and is asking his fellow members of congress for support, even though he was unable to contribute to their recent campaigns. Rangel points out that he had given plenty in the past. The letter he wrote to his colleagues is included in the article.
Rangel asks colleagues for help

Forecasting Congressional Elections

Political scientist Alan Abramowitz has released a forecast of the upcoming congressional elections:

Based on the most recent polling results, which show a near tie on the generic ballot and a net presidential approval (approval minus disapproval) of close to zero, the House forecasting model predicts a very small Democratic seat gain (2-3 seats) in the House but not nearly the 25 seats Democrats would need to take back control of the House. On the other hand, the Senate forecasting model gives Republicans a good chance to regain control of the Senate with an expected pickup of 6-7 seats. That is due almost entirely to the fact that Republicans are defending only 10 Senate seats this year while Democrats are defending 23 seats.

Abramowitz uses a simple aggregate model based on national public opinion data that doesn't take into account local conditions such as the recent redistricting or measure of incumbent vulnerability, but I think a forecasting model like this makes for a nice baseline to understand the role of campaign effects and other idiosyncrasies that will play out over the next 7+ months.

Gwen Moore Recounts Her Rape Ordeal

Gwen Moore Recounts Her Rape Ordeal. 

Our very own Gwen Moore is getting some attention! Wooohooo!!!!

Recent Hearing to Stop USPS Bleed Out

This article outlines the current situations with the United States Postal Service and a recent hearing that was held to consider which options going forward can be used to stem the almost 5 billion dollars per year that the service is losing. House Democrats are asking the Postmaster General for steady attrition rather than whole sale layoffs while Republicans are begging for an instant lowering of the head count. This article states that many employees will be offered a $25,000 early buy out. It also says that one of the main factors in the USPS' current loses was the mandated prefunding of retirement health care costs.

There also is a Senate bill full of fixes that is set for debate but this particular article does not go into very much detail of the Senate Bill's content.

It will be interesting to see which members support what fixes considering that in some districts USPS has large scale operations that employee many people. In other lightly populated areas there is the possibility that USPS may be the only game in town. Ideology will also clearly play a roll in M.C.'s stances on these approaches as the article outlines.

Delaying Highway Funding Bill

With construction season quickly approaching House Democrats moved to stand against a Republican backed 3 month extension of the current highway program funding. House Democrats urged House Republicans to consider the bipartisan Senate bill that had recently passed which would extend highway programs for another 2 years. Rep. Eric Cantor explains in this article that given the current financial crisis facing the federal government there is no way to responsibly pass the Senate bill. But I think Eric Cantor says that about everything. I could see him saying that to his wife when she wants to buy name brand frozen vegetables at one of the many Krogers in Virginia's 7th district. Although his wife Diana is a lawyer and hard core liberal so I think she does whatever she wants.

Republican Suggests Moving GOP by Support Democrats

When Richard Hanna, a Republican member of Congress, told women at a pro-choice rally to donate to Democrats it wasn't quite like encouraging human sacrifice or arguing that dogs and cats should live together, but it was close.

Hanna:

I'll tell you this: Contribute your money to people who speak out on your behalf, because the other side -- my side -- has a lot of it. And you need to send your own message. You need to remind people that you vote, you matter, and that they can't succeed without your help.

Is this a courageous (or dare I say mavericky act) by Hanna? Or is this party treason? What does this incident tell us about Hanna or perhaps the nature representation more broadly?

Members of Congress Taking a Position (at the Line of Scrimmage)

Richard Durbin (D-IL) is getting together a Senate Judiciary Committee inquiry into the recent NFL mini-scandal over the cash incentives players on the New Orleans Saints were given to hurt opposing players.

The NFL surely seems to be on top of punishing the misbehavior, but members of Congress regularly use the spotlight afforded to sports in order to engage in Mayhew-style credit claiming and position taking over issues that are relatively uncontroversial. There are probably few voters who are for injury causing styles of play in football making this an easy issue to take a tough stand on while getting some face time on SportsCenter. Who can forget the uncomfortable answers that Mark McGwire gave in 2005 to the House Government Reform Committee during his testimony at the hearings into steroids and baseball?

Perhaps this time around we'll get to see Brett Favre testify about what it feels like to know he had a bounty on his head?

Classic Overreach by Reyes

EDIT 3/23 No summary or intro to post? Related. I am mystified why so many of you paste links into the body and not the link bar. I like the pretty things people...

Retirement

Representative David Dreier is one of the 20 House members to be pushed into retirement because of the redistricting. There are also incumbent are going to have to face in a fight with challengers that they have not done in awhile.

Retirement

Michelle Bachmann Campaign Ad

Michelle Bachman Campaign Ad


EDIT What no comment/intro/summary?

Rep. Steve King Ad

This is the only ad for the current 2012 election that King's campaign has put up on its youtube account. It is an interesting ad called "It's my water, it's my shower head," which I believe is designed to show Rep. King as a rebel who is willing to "drill out," his "Al Gore," shower head that makes his showers take 12 minutes instead of three and that this act of civil disobedience should be followed by all. It is inexpensive, that is for sure, but I'm not really sure how effective it is. I suppose if the slowness of shower heads is a real salient issue for you as the voter this would be a very important message.

Here is an ad from Americans United against Steve King's choice on voting for a bill that would overhaul the medicare system that was a "form," add which was used for multiple politicians in multiple areas.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ma-mEGMC1TM

Aaron Schock's TV ad

Apparently Aaron Schock has no white constituents in his district?? This ad speaks for itself.  As stated in class, race can play a major role in campaigns/elections and that is easily captured in television television ads. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y9xJ5N6shEg

Spencer Bachus isn't a fan of Obamacare

Spencer Bachus appealing to the anti-Obama vote

Bachus Campaign Ad

Roscoe Reynolds Campaign ad

A pretty funny hate campaign ran against senator Bill Stanley in North Virginia. I, in particular, enjoy the fantastic graphic of Senator Stanley's one man UPS moving crew across the state.

Ed Perlmutter Colorado Rep. Ads

These are ads for Ed Perlmutter, the first one is a negative ad and the second is a positive ad. The first ad is all about how Perlmutter is okay with spending the people’s money to bail out Wall Street and he does it with a smile. He is a man who is always smiling even when he is hurting the Colorado people.

"Pure Pelosi"

The second ad is about how Perlmutter is such a good man that he even hears you out in the grocery store. This is taken from a community setting and showing that he is just like us and wants to listen to our problems and help you. Even though republicans know he is a democrat he still takes the time to listen.

Grocery

Schawosky

This is an ad for the Rep. I chose to do my paper on. The obvious theme is focus on your average middle class American. She probably made this ad because the economy was a major issue in 2010 (as it is now) and by focusing on the economy she may be alleviating some of the negative pressure that comes with having a president from your party in a bad economy.

Marcy Kaptur 2012

Marcy Kaptur "Service 2012"

In this 2012 ad, Marcy Kaptur is trying to show that she is not your typical representative; money is not important to her, she is committed to public service, to helping her constituents. Here, Marcy is standing in front of her modest childhood home (and current home) in attempts to relate to her constituents, to show that even though she is a member of congress, she is still just like them.

 

John Boehner Sighs

John Boehner:

We got 435 members. It's just a slice of America, it really is. We got some of the smartest people in the country who serve here, and some of the dumbest. We got some of the best people you'd ever meet, and some of the raunchiest. We've got 'em all.

On being Speaker of the House:

People think I've got this job as a leader. They don't realize that I have about 200 responsibilities and roles. I've gotta be the big brother, the father, I gotta be the disciplinarian, the dean of students, the principal, the spouse—you can't believe all the roles that I have to play! But one of them is, you know, some problems you can nip early. I had three guys in here a few years ago, I said "Boys, you're cruising down the wrong path." Two of them listened, one of them didn't. He's no longer here.

More in the Wall Street Journal.

Average Dem. Incumbent loss of Vote Share Due to Healthcare Reform

Interesting article that outlines a recent study showing that the average incumbent Congressional Democrat lost 5.8 percent of the vote due to their voting for healthcare reform. I am skeptical of this stat, how often have you heard a partisan voter throw up a lame excuse for not having voted for the opposing ideology? At least 5% of the time I presume.

Rep. Hoyer Reads the Tea Leaves- Sees Big Win for House Dems.

Rep. Hoyer today predicted that if the economy continues to improve at the current pace up until November that not only will Pres. Obama be reelected but the Dems would regain a majority in the House. Rep. Hoyer is really one of the first members of the Democratic party to make such a bold prediction but if national unemployment drops under 8% who is going to argue with him?

JOBS Passes but Who Wins?

Although Rep. Cantor regarded the passing of the JOBS bill as a "as a significant bipartisan achievement and noted that the House action shows that even in an election year, legislative victories are possible," there remains debate of which party gets credit for the bill.  With reps constantly under the gun to legislate, I guess politics can never truley escape any type of achievements or progress in Congress. Especially with upcoming elections each side is stating its case, even though the success of the bill is to be determined. Very short-sided logic.http://www.rollcall.com/news/with_jobs_bills_passage_both_parties_tussle_for_credit-212989-1.html?pos=hatxt

"Joe the Plumber" to face Rep. Kaptur in Ohio race

Incumbent Democratic Rep. Dennis Kucinich losses to 15 term Democratic incumbent after redistricting moved their districts together. Now that the Ohio Primary is over, Democrat Rep. Marcy Kaptur is now facing off against the Republican Primary winner Samuel Wurzelbacher. Wurzelbacher, also known as "Joe The Plumber," faces a major challenge as the district is heavily dominated by democratic voters. Despite this challenge, Wurzelbacher has promised a clean and fair campaign and wants to win on the facts. It will be interesting to see if this strategy will hold out in the long run as he runs against the long time House incumbent Kaptur.

Scouting and political leanings

How much does the early exposure to certain social environments shape later life choices? Especially so much so, that there is a disproportionate representation of Eagle Scouts in a very, very  select field such as congressional representation.(paragraph 5)

2012 fundraising: Congressional races get more attention from GOP

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0312/73622_Page3.html

This recent article in Politico discusses the upcoming elections. In part due to the long drawn out primary season, and the lack of the Republican Presidential Candidates ability to inspire and motivate their base, Republicans are becoming concerned about their chances of winning the White House, and are becoming more focused on winning the upcoming congressional elections, and on maintaining their majority in the house. On the other hand Democrats are becoming more optimistic than last year about their chances of maintaining the White House and the possibility of a obtaining a majority in both houses. However, there appears to be a consensus, an agreement between both parties that the 2012 elections will be a tight race.

On Their Own

Echoing our readings on candidate-centered elections, Politico reports that Barack Obama's reelection campaign has informed Democratic leaders in Congress that they will receive limited financial support for their own electoral efforts. Holding on to the funds that congressional leaders otherwise had been expecting is being taken as a sign that the Obama campaign needs every last dollar in their own battle.

Illegal Campaign?

How far do Congressmen go to really go fundraise to receive money? It seems here that the pressure may have gotten U.S. Rep. Michael Grimm where there was illegal campaign contributions made from a New York Rabbi made or threaten to give. The FBI is considering opening an investigation concerning the allegations.
New York Congressman's Fundraising

Endorsing Mitt Romney

The House Majority leader, Eric Cantor, is putting his endorsement to Mitt Romney. He also believes that Romney will win all of Virgina's Republican delegates coming this Tuesday. Cantor believes that Romney has the best plan for the future. This endorsement will sure help and possible persuade others in believing in Romney as well.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/mar/4/house-majority-leader-cantor-endorses-romney/

Creating a More Partisan Senate

This article talks about the Olympia Snowe's decision to not run again for her seat. This article also speaks to the pattern of moderate congressmen and congresswomen not seeking reelection. The article suggests that this will lead to Republicans having a more difficult time winning control of the Senate now. Another interesting comment in this article is from Lindsey Graham, R-South Carolina who says that Olympia Snowe retired because there was no further light for her at the end of the tunnel in terms of the Senate.

Not About Congress But I Posted it Anyway

If the Republican Presidential candidates are hoping to do well over the course of of the new few months this article highlights some of the vulnerabilites and challenges they must face in order to make it through to elections!!

Four Candidates and the Next Four Months

Edited to add a title (hey it was missing one).

Dicks to leave Congress

I just felt like I had to post this one. Anyhow beyond a great title for a post Rep. Dicks' Washington counterpart in the Senate, Sen. Patty Murray, described Dicks as a "Washington state institution!" I do not doubt that.... Furthermore if you read between the lines in this article it sounds like Dicks has grown tired of the grind after 18 terms.

Weird Interview for Rhode Island's Senate Seat

I happened to see this article on Facebook. Watch the video on the lower portion of the article where Republican candidate Barry Hinckley gives an interview with his 5 year old son at his side. It seems as if his attempt to use his son as an advantage backfires into a pretty uncomfortable interview.

Birth Control Amendment Rejected by Senate

The Republican minority leader added this onto the transportation funding bill. It looks like he was trying to add another dimension to the transportation bill hoping he would get what he wanted with the birth control amendment. It still didn't work out for him.

EDITED to clean up that ugly mess of a link.... People!