Based on the most recent polling results, which show a near tie on the generic ballot and a net presidential approval (approval minus disapproval) of close to zero, the House forecasting model predicts a very small Democratic seat gain (2-3 seats) in the House but not nearly the 25 seats Democrats would need to take back control of the House. On the other hand, the Senate forecasting model gives Republicans a good chance to regain control of the Senate with an expected pickup of 6-7 seats. That is due almost entirely to the fact that Republicans are defending only 10 Senate seats this year while Democrats are defending 23 seats.
Abramowitz uses a simple aggregate model based on national public opinion data that doesn't take into account local conditions such as the recent redistricting or measure of incumbent vulnerability, but I think a forecasting model like this makes for a nice baseline to understand the role of campaign effects and other idiosyncrasies that will play out over the next 7+ months.
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