Average Dem. Incumbent loss of Vote Share Due to Healthcare Reform
Interesting article that outlines a recent study showing that the average incumbent Congressional Democrat lost 5.8 percent of the vote due to their voting for healthcare reform. I am skeptical of this stat, how often have you heard a partisan voter throw up a lame excuse for not having voted for the opposing ideology? At least 5% of the time I presume.
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I don't understand your skepticism. Could you clarify? Did you click to read the actual paper? Maybe they account for your concerns? Typically, mainstream reporting on scientific research often requires simplification, making it hard to judge the veracity of the claims or interesting nuance.
The actual study found the link between an average 5 % drop of incumbents who had voted for health care reform and those who did not. Upon a 3rd look at it, there does not seem to be any real interaction between the researcher and the voters i.e. a sample size to potentially tie a voting decision to an M.C. that had voted for health care reform. I just wonder if there is not a great overlying factor of "leap frog voting," vs. actual drop in support due to health care reform votes. It still seems possible that a larger trend may be at play.
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