This is a class blog for the students of POLSCI 426: Congressional Politics at the University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee.
Recession isn't over?
Although many experts say the recession is over, many everyday people disagree. Many are still out of work and many are wondering how it is possible to be out of a recession when the economy is so bad.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Blog Archive
-
▼
2010
(327)
-
▼
October
(51)
- VOTE OR DIE!
- ADs ADs Ads
- Joe Manchin Ad
- Schumer and Durbin's under the radar play for leader
- In Minnesota, A Tight Race for Governor With No In...
- Best and Worst of the 2010 Political Ads
- Miller for Alaska Ad
- The Making of a Political Viral Video
- Chris Coons the Taxman
- Carly for California Ad
- "Different This Time Around?"
- Feingold v Johnson
- Powerful Statement
- Where to Donate?
- Rand Paul Attack Ad
- Ron Johnson White Board
- I Am Not a Witch... Not that there's anything wron...
- Really
- Feingold and Johnson in a dead heat according to r...
- Democrats & the House
- Keeping the Theme going
- Follow Up Re: Money in Elections/Robert's America
- Don’t Follow the Money
- John Roberts' America
- Debates
- Obama Campaign Trail in 2010
- Crunch time=lots of commericals
- Realignment of Southern Party Politics
- Gutter Politics
- Don't asked don't tell because I don't want to know
- The Education of President Obama
- TV ADS
- Feingold v. Johnson Leads in Campaign Ads
- Tea Party Targeting Dems
- funding secrets!
- A Vote Some Dems Might Regret
- Advertisements for Democrats?
- Debates Tonight (Friday, 10/8)
- Poll Results
- Money=votes? maybe not
- The Founding Fathers versus the Tea Party
- Spending for the 2010 midterm elections
- Can we really trust polls?
- Recession isn't over?
- Historic election?
- The NFL vs. Russ Feingold for Senate For a 4th Time
- Obama Care number two
- Progressives in Madtown not motivated
- Only 39 Percent Would Vote to Re-Elect Obama in 2012
- Delaware Race Is Bellwether: All Politics Is Now N...
- Murdoch tells Congress to secure Borders
-
▼
October
(51)
4 comments:
How did they come to this conclusion? I believe that is a core concept missing from this article. I personally do not feel the economy is out of a recession yet due to the jobless rates that seem to be growing each time they come out with a report.
Although controversial, recessions are generally based on two consecutive quarters of decline in GDP. Is this an adequate measure?
Last year, after some initially claimed the U.S. was out of the recession, President Obama claimed job growth always lagged behind economic growth. According to PolitiFact.com, this is a true statement. Generally, unemployment begins to decline three months after GDP growth. However, after the last two recessions (1991 & 2001), it took 15 months and 19 months, respectively. We're at about 15 months right now and the unemployment numbers released today show the same rate as last month. Just as the Republicans criticize President Obama for unemployment problems following the recession, the Democrats criticized President Bush for the same thing following the 2001 recession.
Even if these facts are true, will it matter for the Dems this fall? Does it make sense that unemployment lags? Why might this recession be different than past recessions?
Sorry, a link to PolitiFact.com might be nice...
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2009/nov/09/barack-obama/obama-says-job-growth-always-lags-behind-economic-/
As mentioned in the article, the conclusion that the recession has officially ended came from the National Bureau of Economic Research, which is officially in charge of tracking and determining economic turning points. Although data may lead us to conclude that the recession officially is over, I believe it is the lack of significant visible economic change that is leading the public to assume that the recession has not yet ended.
It is also important to consider that, traditionally, the economy does not experience a complete recovery quickly following the end of a recession. Seeing that it is now considered to be the worst economic downtown since the Great Depression, it is likely that it will take a significant amount of time before we see the kinds of positive growth that many associate with the end of a recession.
Unfortunately, more bad news was released today showing that recovery is slowing considerably:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/09/business/economy/09jobs.html?_r=1&hp
Post a Comment