Weird, wild stuff

Not really weird or wild for those that need insight into the mindblowing title. Anyway, there's a question among some Democratic camps about whether bracing for the upcoming midterms by withholding on certain controversial bills is worth it after the passing of health care reform or whether caution is indeed practical. The argument is essentially that Democrats should take advantage of their unified power to pass their legislative agenda in preparation of possible changes in the midterms. Really neat stuff.

Economy still a factor?

Some former advisors for Bill Clinton are saying that even with an improving economy, the democrats could still be hurt by it because of the lack of improvement on the unemployment rate. So yet another variable for the mid-terms is brought up!

Redistricting 2010

The article provides a look into the politics of the 2010 redistricting process and funding for those efforts.

The Founders and Health Care

I always enjoyed those essays in political theory classes which forced you to argue how such-and-so philosopher would have felt about some distinctly contemporary problem. The difficulty with using the Founders as a group in this same light is that they had fairly diverse preferences; it's not hard for us to find internally conflicting views or to look back and find a hero or a villain and often times in the same Founder. With that being said, Here's an argument by way of Ezra Klein that examines the similarities in the processes of the national founding and health care reform.

Senior citizens, who typically make up about one in five midterm voters, represent a particularly valuable but tough audience on this issue

The Mid-term election will be very difficult for incumbents with the excited Senior citizen crowd coming out in force. With 20% of the vote, they are the election makers/breakers. The Health care issue will certainly be a difficult position for many legislators going up for another term. Since the minority party usual gains in mid-terms and with a excited elctorate it will be interesting. In this peice, "About half of respondents (49 percent) said Obama won't be a factor in their vote in November", the "Obama factor" will not play into the elections. Those with quality candadate will be in jepordy.

Health care part duex

This is the "fix" for the bill they just ramed through. So we will have health care (2), providing the house passes it. With mid-terms commng up fast, many congressmen(women) want to get back home soon to start the re-election battle, and the all important fund raising. With the bills passed, it will be interesting to see if the poll numbers translate into turnovers. Most of the polls show a dissatisfaction with the healthcare bill as it is, it will be interesting to see of this translates into a huge turnover.
As we inch closer to election time, i am sure the polls will change again.

Is obama the antichrist?

It is frightening to see the amount of distortion in republican's views of Obama and the health care bill. I think the nov elections will be extremely divisive and msnbc and fox news are licking their chops right now as a large percentage of the country spins into hysteria.

States sue claiming Medicaid will bust budget

14 states have now sued the federal government over the health care program claiming the expansion of Medicaid will wreck the budget. The article details how California which is 20 Billion in debt could have 2-3 billion more placed on them with the expansion of this program. The article discusses how many states are already having trouble with the budget now and this is unfeasible. The article discusses that this economic period has resulted in less revenue coming in and states have a hard time paying for what they currently run. I understand Obama wants to help people however he needs to understand the ramifications of things like the stimulus package on the deficit and medicaid expansion on states budgets.

Congressman Paul Ryan (WI-1)

Some words on civility/dignity in Congress, his views on the "health care deficit", and his ideas on what to do with health care if the Republicans regain the majority.

Bayh Positioning for Hawkish 2012 Primary Challenge?

AIPAC policy conference: Bayh stakes out a hawkish position on Iran, insisting that the use of force must remain on the table...

A Profile of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi

An article about how Nancy Pelosi accomplishes her objectives in the House of Representatives.

219.

After a long fight, health care reform is now a reality.

Historic Vote Today

With Democrats increasingly confident they have enough support, the House of Reps planned Saturday for a historic vote today that would enact the most dramatic changes in the nation's health care system in decades.

Gallup's State of the States

Gallup has a nice collection of polling data on political and economic characteristics of states. The format isn't great for getting the data out into say a spreadsheet, but it does help make comparisons across states. Might be useful for people, I don't know, writing a paper considering statewide constituencies...

Rasmussen Poll on Health care plan

This is a poll that discusses several different factors with regard to the health care plan. I think they clearly define why this bill may cost some politicians their careers. The article has several polls, one discusses that 50% would be more likely to vote against someone who voted in favor of the bill. The polls also show that 57% believe that the plan will hurt the economy and many also believe that this plan will cost more than is estimated. Large numbers are also against any reduction in funding for medicare, and by 2014 this plan if it stays on track will force everyone to purchase health insurance, that provision is not popular. My final thought on healthcare is that many will question how the no votes became yes votes in recent days, and how much were they given in bribes to change their vote. The problem is that healthcare can be improved and the cost lowered, but nothing I have seen in this plan will accomplish that. I hope I am wrong, but I do not think that I am.

A Brief Guide to This Weekend's Health Care Vote

A quick primer on what to expect with the health care reform bill this weekend. Impress your friends and loved ones during spring break.

Kucinich going rogue.

Okay, so as I'm sure everyone knows Dennis Kucinich, long the face of opposition to the current manifestation of the health care bill, has decided to cast his vote in favor of the bill. He's advocated the public option and recently several provisions within the bill that have been taken out. Despite this he's decided to vote for it knowing the costs it could pose to him politically and the importance of passing the bill now given dwindling momentum for such a piece of legislation.

Dems Six Votes Short...

The battle continues. House leadership is still six votes short of the number necessary to pass healthcare reform.

Inside-out

Okay, so here it is. The Democrats have released an ad attacking Mitch McConnell for being obstructionist an a scheming wheeler and dealer. Mostly it seems that they're trying to paint McConnell as a Washington insider; a parallel to our readings, concerned only about the system and not the people. We'll see how the ad plays out I guess.

The Parliamentary Battle continues...

I know we have only been studying Congress for a few months but I don't remember when parliamentary procedures were so important to pass legislation especially when the party in the majority is the one trying to pass it. Forgive my ignorance of its history.

More Congressional Flophouses

Apparently, George Miller isn't the only one running a flophouse. An article from ABC's The Note mentions and links to stories about several other similar lodging arrangements.

Heatlhcare 2010 Strategic Voting

Key votes for the healthcare bill. But the talk is that may make or break them in the upcomming midterms. This is a classic case I think of strategic voting, the way they vote will have dire consequences at the mid term elections. Of the “Top 5”, three have quality challengers. This will be another reason for the short vote, if they can not get a “full house” onboard it could spell major problems in the future for the 3rd house, the president.

United States of Corporate America

Since the Supreme Court decision a few weeks ago to give the equivalent of person hood to corporations, a PR firm has decided to test whether corporations can seek political office in addition to using money as political speech.



Whats next? Senator Boeing, Congressman Quarles and Brady?

Democrats may attempt "Slaughter solution" to pass healthcare bill

This article details a bill that would in effect pass the healthcare bill by voting on another bill that would approve changes to it. This seems the the most illegitimate attempt yet to get the votes to pass this bill. This is bordering on absurd now and may be challenged on legal grounds that article one of the constitution discusses that a bill cannot be passed to enact another bill. This bill does not have the votes due to various parts that are considered controversial, the special kickbacks and federal funding of abortion that many are uneasy about taking a vote on. The senate bill must be passed in its entirety because reconciliation can only be applied to bills that have been enacted, not bills that have yet to be passed. This is not the way major legislation should be handled.

Defense of Marriage Between Man and Horse

McCain's opponent from the "right" suggests that the Supreme Court has allowed for the interpretation of marriage to be extended to Horses!! Hayworth may wish to extend his absurd (which he did acknowledge) notion to include the intimate relation many people have for fictional characters.

Which way will it go??

This article explains the various paths which the healthcare debate could take in the coming days/weeks. The general consensus is that it will be voted on later this week, but nobody is real sure how that will come out. It seems that the longer this is dragged out, the more complicated it is becoming.

The new and improved Mr. Rogers Nationhood?

Interesting view on health care.. a good clip to his constituents

Tea anyone?

Is the Tea party a movment or a party? Seems like a senator is going out on a limb to find out. Seems like a new way that may work or will flop like never before.

Carly Fiorina's campaign: Crazy or crazy genius?

Ok, I'm going to lean towards just crazy. This is a whopping 7 minute and 43 second ad. And I'm not sure I would want to highlight my candidate's medieval history degree and dropping out of law school even if she found success later... but that's just me.


Without further ado, from the folks that brought you "Demon Sheep:"

Just in case there are birthers in Class

The birther theory goes back to at least 2007. Does anyone seriously believe, that with these rumors circulating, and the amount of money both Hillary Clinton and John McCain had for opposition research that they would not have definitively proved Barrack Obama was ineligible?

This link shows transcripts from Hardball, where a Clinton campaign advisor gives a backhanded compliment about his Indonesian Heritage. Obviously, they sent opposition research to Indonesia to investigate his time there. They were able to prove that he attended school there. But that is not the claim the birthers make.

There is also a video from Hardball, where he interviews Rep. Campbell from California, who is co-sponsoring a bill to require all Presidential candidates to produce their birth certificate before they can assume office. Chris Mathews shows the congressman a copy of Obama's Certificate of Live Birth.

How much will "birthers" affect 2010 in the Senate?

If you look at 5 major candidates for U.S. Senate, maybe quite bit,

Money quote

"Several of these candidates have later corrected their initial hesitation, but it is precisely that initial hesitation that contains so much information about what Republican candidates fear right now. No doubt that Portman and Marco Rubio know that Birtherism is bullshit. The gap between their private beliefs and how they articulate them publicly is fairly wide. I'm not a fan of stories that begin with X 'refuses to denounce' Y -- I usually skip them. I make an exception here because the accusation is so reckless, so tied to race and culture, and so stupid that those who try to Wink at the Birthers are adding potency to a poison that everyone is forced to gulp."

What "little" special interests have to do to get attention.

The Time Article about Sens. Schumer and Durbin Vying to Take Over

Eh, eh? I'm just trying to make up for having a paper proposal that went on to a second page.

Go on take the money and run....for Senate.

Not copying I swear. Brown nosing if possible, absolutely. So here's some more fundraising stuff, although a little more tame. Since there ain't no party like a midterm fundraising party, what gives with not even showing up to your own fundraiser especially when Obama is dishing out some major burns? Well this article gives a little insight into the rhetoric behind fundraising and candidate strategy. Did Ms. Carnahan avoid President Obama on purpose so as not to be associated with him come election time? Check it out.

That Politico Fundraising Story

In class today, Prof. Tofias said that whoever posted this story first would be his favorite student or something, so I'm going for it.

The article talks about the difficulties of fund-raising, the amount of time it takes to raise money, and how demeaning it extensive it is. It fits in really well with what we've been talking about this week. Good stuff!

Freshman Fundraising

Massa on fundraising woes

Strategic Voting in Congress

A game theoretic analysis of the coordination problem facing moderate Democrats on the healthcare reform bill.

AND more strategic voting being contemplated in the Senate (via Marginal Revolution).

Six Reasons Why Barack Obama is Still the Favorite to Win in 2012

We always here the news about possbile GOP candidates who would be ready to trump Obama from his Presidential seat in 2012, but this author believes he still has the advantage, and that when it comes down to it, he'll probably win a second term. Check it out.

Massa's situation

It will be interesting to see whether Massa actually goes through and resigns this evening, or whether he rescinds his resignation. It seems like he doesn't want to resign, but feels like this is his way of getting his voice heard seriously.

congress vs. the federal reserve

This presents us with an inside look into public banking policy. Congress has the means to change the system, but the question is will the courts uphold any changes to the previous independence of the Fed. If congress changes the status quo what will that mean to you and I who have to trust the banking system? What that mean to insurance? Not that long ago Congress had an issue with their own bank that failed. If they cannot run their own bank how do they expect to run the banks of the nation?

Getting the Ball Rolling on the Repeal of DADT

A group of Democratic Senators introduced legislation to end the "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy in the military.

Personally, I am eager to see this antiquated policy repealed and hope that it has the votes it needs to pass. However, the article states that "neither Lieberman nor Levin said they were assured of having 60 votes to push it through the Senate" which is worrisome.

Here's an op-ed from one of the bill's sponsors (who is the Chairman of the Armed Services Committee), Senator Carl Levin, if you're interested.

The Presidents Proposal on Health care

I think since there has been so much debate about what is really in the healthcare plan I would add a link to the President's proposal so people can get an idea of what is actually in it. I think there are some good ideas about trying to get insurance companies to spend more on patient care than bonuses or advertising, I am curious as to how they would enforce such a thing. I also think that the democrats are demonizing the insurance companies as well for political gain. I think health care costs go up because technology improves, and people want the best care and that can become expensive. I think some companies are abusive and obnoxious, however this problem is more than just insurance companies, it is the amount of malpractice insurance doctors must carry, the fact they must perform more tests than are needed usually to prevent the possibility of being sued as well. These all add to the cost of healthcare and once again pre-existing conditions being covered could be abused significantly. I do not like insurance companies and if we can get them to stop some of their abuses, a student mentioned connecting costs to credit scores, etc.., but if they cannot compete with government plan the type of healthcare we get could be much worse than what we get now.

do you know where you stand?

A very interesting survey. It is disticly british, but it also reflectes our views here as well. I took this survey and the results were a little suprising, you may not realize whereyou really stand. I thought i was mid right, only to find i was slightly right and very idealistic in nature. I would take the time to see where you really are, it will suprise you.

Leaked documents reveal GOP plan to use scare tactics to raise money

Documents left in a hotel room revealed plans for the republican strategies in 2010. The strategy is to scare people away from the possibility of a "trend towards socialism." Several caricatures of key democrat officials were found as well, including the "Obama as the joker" used by the tea parties.
I think its unsavory to see campaign ads bashing another candidate, and makes me want to vote for them even less because they have to deface the opponent to make themselves look better. A fear campaign, to me, seems to be an ignorant strategy.

The One About the Okie and the Congressman

So this proves it, seems like history must be cyclical. As the article reminds us history/Congress buffs, the salaries of Congressmen have not been reduced since 1933; the whole Great Depression and New Deal thing. If the bill passes it should prove to be an empathetic gesture towards the common man in this time of economic recession that should help to bolster the prospects of incumbents in Congress in the midterm elections. With this as the measure of the bill's incentive, it seems likely that it will indeed pass but we'll see I guess.

The Use of Reconciliation 1980-2008

My friend (and sometimes co-author) Brendan Nyhan wrote up a nice blog post on the historical uses of Reconciliation in the Senate this past April. With Obama urging on the Democrats to pass healthcare reform, it seems timely now.

Job Losses Blamed on the Weather

This is new. Goldman Sachs says the blizzards in February kept employers and prospective employees from getting to the office. That makes sense. Goldman Sachs bases their claim on the 1996 snow storms that pummeled the East Coast. Further, the report claims the current 9.7% unemployment rate will be bumped up to 10% when Friday's news hits. However, that 3% translates into 100,000 job losses because of the storms, alone. 100,000 people might have gotten jobs? That seems like an awful lot of folks, but I guess when you think there are roughly 200 million people in the labor force, a hundred large isn't so many? Apparently, we will see the tide turn when the weather warms up, as is forecast this week. It'll be interesting to see if that pans out. Otherwise, as the article notes, the Democrats are going to have it even tougher in the November mid-term elections.

The Democrats Try and One-Up the Republicans

Nancy Pelosi has tapped controversial Rep. Pete Stark (D-CA)to replace Charles Rangel as Chair on the House Ways and Means Committee. Though there was some jockeying to get someone else in there, Stark’s seniority will be respected.

The most interesting thing about this article, to me anyway, is the seeming incongruous statements by Rangel and Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington Executive Director Melanie Sloan. On one hand, Rangel says he tried to tender his resignation to Pelosi “from the very, very beginning.” Well, maybe she was simply waiting to see if anything would come from the investigation. Then, Ms. Sloan gives full credit to the Democrats for “forcing” Rangel out before they could be accused of being “soft on ethics” by the Republicans. I wonder, would Rangel have been ousted eventually if the Republicans had not threatened to force him out by use of the privileged resolution?

President Obama, Democrats will use reconciliation to pass health care bill if not given an up or down vote

The article details the President I believe demonstrating his inexperience in leadership. This problem cannot be solved by bullying tactics.I think the up or down vote will be painted as fraudulent by republicans and the public will believe them. I understand something needs to be done, however this is going over a cliff with the American public. The bill has popular, and solid provisions that many people can agree on, such as malpractice reform. The problem many have is that they do not want something they feel is forced on them, see the Vietnam war for an example. I am not saying that the healthcare bill is as bad as the Vietnam war, I used it as example as something major forced on the American public. Scott Brown wether you think he was a RINO or not was elected to stop this bill because many provisions are not popular, and many feel we are already in debit too much now. This bill helped elect a republican to Ted Kennedy's seat, Scott Brown signed 41 after his name during his campaign in Massachusetts. He pledged himself as the one vote to block the healthcare bill when 60 was needed. This overall bill is not popular and the American public will greatly resent having a major shift in healthcare policy passing with 51 votes. Reconciliation should not be mentioned at all for something this important. I think that this will cause a major shift in the next election toward the republicans and even more gridlock. Obama still has the power and moderate approval ratings, he can get something done but this is too much, too fast.

Rangel to Give up Chair – Maybe

NBC News says he's done, Rangel says otherwise.

Either way, I think it's too late. Republicans get to make ads painting him as trading Caribbean vacations for access.

UPDATE: And he's gone.

Thoughts on Healtcare Reconciliation and Senate Rules

This article sheds some light on the Senate rules of reconciliation and Senate procedures.

Senator Lincoln Gets a Democratic Challenger

This will be a tell tail race, if he loses to his own parties challenger. This also could turn out to be in the Republicans favor, let the Dem/s fight it out, and then target the voters as the only Viable candidate

Tommy For Senate?

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Politico and several other political news sources are reporting that Fmr. Gov. Tommy Thompson (R-Elroy)is considering making a run for U.S. Senate against 3 term U.S. Senator Russ Feingold (just he considered running in 2008, 2006, 2004, 2000, and 1998).

On paper one would think that this is a viable race for the state GOP, a popular moderate governor, with 95% name id running against an incumbent in an anti-incumbent year.

Yet one one looks closer you can see some problems for the GOP, as Governor at the same time he made welfare reform his signature issue (used as a model for President Clinton's welfare reform) Gov. Thompson created a massive new entitlement program for the poor (Badgercare) and a state child-care program (Wisconsin Shares), you add that with his fervent support of Milwaukee light-rail (anathema to the likes of Charlie Sykes and Mark Belling) his support of high speed rail (something his fellow Republicans on the ballot are against) and his support of health care reform, one gets the sense that he may not exactly be a "Tea Party" conservative, and in a three way primary a "true conservative" may upset him.

Then again it is quite possible that his Wisconsin "charm" would win out.

No political A-bomb. Maybe Chernobyl?

Turns out some members of Congress used some major historical disasters as political analogies this week a little frivolously. Those light-hearted politicians, always waxing poetic with human tragedy. While most are no Michael Richards; Kramer of Seinfeld fame, it seems that politicians and their political rhetoric can get a little dicey when events of immeasurable human suffering are used as the metric. It just goes to show the power of public opinion in these sort of things and the vulnerability we've discussed in regards to largely stand alone members of Congress.