Allen West (FL-22) Web Style

Allen West (FL-22) Web Style

Florida Congressman Allen West Web style      

·          http://west.house.gov/ : A mix of national and local, Blue color scheme

Allen West for U.S. Congress

·         http://www.allenwestforcongress.com/ : Focuses on national issues, Grey/Yellow Color Scheme

Florida Senator Marco Rubio Web Style

·         http://www.rubio.senate.gov/public/ : Some local issues but mostly focuses on national issues, Blue/grey color scheme

Florida Senator Bill Nelson Web Style

·         http://billnelson.senate.gov/ : Almost entirely national focused, with “Florida News” as local, Blue color scheme

Congressman West’s official U.S. House page falls into a mixed category based on the Gulati article. At the tope there is a banner that reads Congressman Allen West Representing the 22^nd District of Florida with himself superimposed over the Florida coastline. This is followed by access of social media such as facebook, youtube, twitter and flicker. His page is then sectioned off into Media, Constituent Services, Committees & Legislation, and Contact Me which includes a map of the Florida district. He links to national issues such as Health Care and the debt as well as local issues and photos from local events and meetings. West does not paint himself as an insider or outsider on this website. Allen West does have a personal website that is being used for campaign for reelection. It focus is mostly on hot button national issues such as the economy and national Health Care. The site also of course focuses on gaining help for the campaign and getting donations.

                Both of West’s web pages stay neutral and even use colors I have never seen before such as grey and yellow. Compared to the Florida Senate websites of Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Bill Nelson (D-FL), West’s also matches those websites in both style and mix of national and local issues. I would say that both Senator Bill Nelson’s and Senator Marco Rubio’s sites focuses on national issues much more on National issues then local issues. Allen West’s pages as well as Marco Rubio’s are definitely more engaging and interactive then Bill Nelson’s as they have slideshows and photo galleries then provide additional information to constituents. It seems that in Florida, despite the typical Red color scheme used by Republicans, blue and grey are standard issue for both Republicans and Democrats.  Both Senate pages have images of the Senators in meetings giving more of an insider feel to them while West’s focuses on local meeting and events.  

This leads me to believe that Florida prefers an image of neutrality on colors, since none really kept with the typical color schemes, and wanted to show some kind of a balance between national and local issues. Allen West’s sites avoided images of him in meeting in Washington and focused more on local and state issues so as to not convey he’s a Washing ton insider. I also find it worth mentioning that Allen West’s web site is similar to Marco Rubio’s in many ways and I feel he covers and appeals to voters on many of the same issues, so perhaps a path to Senate it something West has in mind.

Latham Makes a $1.5 Milliion T.V. Purchase

The Hill says this reserve of air time is a reflection of the power of newly spawned Super Pacs but as we have talked about this could be a reflection that he is running against a strong opponent. The Hill also missed the theory of diminishing returns for an incumbent. It would be interesting to do the same analysis for Latham's new district as I did with the 4th to see if this new district is really a "swing" district. The 4th had been called competetive but my research has found the voting record in house races very partisan.

House clears highway bill with pipeline mandate, thwarts Obama

House Republican defies the White House veto threat and pass a legislation to extend funding for the Keystone XL pipeline until Sept. Although president Obama already Vail to use his veto power, House Republican and some Democrats get together in support of the legislation. Because major bill most be pass with bi-partisan support, House republican see this measure as a winner strategy to present their case to voter. Also member who voted in favor of the bill is on record and if president veto the bill which I think he will, Republican can argue that the president is out of touch with American who are paying high price for gasoline

House Republicans continue to demand greater transparency from the White House even though it has been more than three years into Obama Presidency. To me those demand are all about the
Republican party tying to frame the president in a negative way to score some political point. This is a prime example of how our leaders have become so polarize with party Id instead of trying to make the lives of people who voted them into office better.
 I am very disappointed to that member of Congress spend much of their time trying to win political points instead of working together to solve the country problem, I say this because if member of Congress give the Obama administration C- when it came to providing government documents to the public, what grade would they give to the previous administration D+ or D-? The previous  administration wasn't any better.

Republicans Dangle a Highway Bill to Get Another Shot at the Keystone

The House passed a Highway Bill that will extend funding through September but they have tied it to the Keystone XL pipeline which Pres. Obama has promised to veto. According to the article the bill passed with bi-partisan support therefore House Republicans see this as a 3rd dimension to add to the debate and try to push a wedge issue into the Democratic Party. If House Dems support the bill then the Pres. is just out of touch in theory and if the Pres. were to sign a bill with the Keystone in it this would turn off a lot of the Democratic base which views environmental issues as very meaningful. Interesting move, personally I am almost 100% that Pres. Obama will veto this piece of legislation. It would appear that many Dems in the House got on board because they want to see the bill in a Senate House conference.

Disagreements over future tax bill within Republican Party

Since August, when the budget difficulties really started to hit the fan, I have seen several articles that hint at the possibility that freshman Republican MCs are putting ideology before re-election.  This creates an interesting party dynamic that might cause difficulty in building voting coalitions between moderate and extreme fiscal conservatives.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0412/75275.html

Just Another Political Science Convention

James Warren covered this past weekend's Midwest Political Science Association annual meeting for The Atlantic and summarizes some interesting research.

Redistricted? Yes. Re-Stated? Maybe.

Washington state Democratic Party Chairman Dwight Pelz:

Dennis Kucinich has to decide what his legacy is going to be. Will he be remembered as a principled member of Congress or the narcissist who lost two Congressional races in two states the same year?

Meanwhile, Dennis Kucinich claims that voters are "urging [him] to run."

A great many other members of Congress have simply chosen to retire.

Polarization of Parties

Thought this was an interesting article and similar to what we went over in class covering the political polarization of current politics. Charting data in the computer and then analyzing trends both parties are on two sides of the extremes which makes compromising on important issues harder

Polarization

More Push for the Buffet Rule

In this video, Obama speaks out in support of the Buffet tax rule and urges Congress to as well. He notes it is time for a change away from "trickle" down economics and into something better for the people. I wonder what the outcome will be? Will this be voted in by Congress?

In Wisconsin The Lines Have Been Re-Drawn

Re; Re-districting

Federal judges re-drew the lines for the south side of Milwaukee's Assembly Districts 8 & 9. Last month a three-judge panel ruled that the maps crafted by Republican lawmakers violated the voting rights of Latinos. To dilute their voting power, Latino voters were divided into two Assembly districts, instead of being concentrated into one district where they could have more influence on an election.  Republican lawmakers continue to assert their re-disticting maps are fair.

Allen West is Calling Names Again

Today Republican Congressman Allen West called about 80 members of the House in the Democratic party "card-carrying Marxists." I am unsure of what West's motivations are, perhaps he felt that his constituency back at home in Florida would enjoy some hardline red meat conservative comments? At this stage of the game all the House Democrats could be Communists but while in the minority it really should not matter to West or anyone else who understands how the legislative process works.

The portion of this artice that I enjoyed the most and made me laugh was the section where CNN decided to get a statement from the Communist Party of the USA chair! lol What is she going to say? "Yes Mr. Reporter, everyone of them is a Pinko Commie Bastard."??? Silly season in reporting.

Budget/Keeping the House

Obama's budget plan for $3.6 trillion was unanimously voted down by both Republicans and Democrats 414 - 0. With Obama's approving ratings down could this be Democrats attempt to not lose the House? With the upcoming elections the districts that Democrats have to either maintain or win back are in the air with Obama's lack of likability I believe having an effect on them.

House Easily Rejects Obama Budget

Rick Santorum drop out of the Republican race for the White House

I was really surprise that Rick Santorum drop out of the Republican race for the White House so early, I guest he felt that his chances of getting the number of delegates needed to win the Republican primary wasn't  possible base on the math, therefore the best he could do to preserved his political future is leaving the race with some dignity. I think he did the right for his political future considering how the second running always become the favorite in the next presidential circle.    

Spencer Bachus Web-Style

Spencer Bachus (AL – 6) Web Style

Gulati Home Page Webstyle

            Spencer Bachus

·      Bachus.house.gov – Mixed of national and local

·      Spencerbachus.com – Neutral

Richard Shelby (Alabama Senator)

·      Shelby.senate.gov – Mixed of national and local

Jeff Sessions (Alabama Senator)

·      Sessions.senate.gov - Local

Congressman Bachus’ official house website definitely falls into the mixed category according to Gulati’s article.  On the top left are: a picture of a plantation-style home and the official seal of Alabama.  Flanking the title, on the right, is a picture of Spencer himself super-imposed over The Capital building.  The rest of the main page includes links to many of Bachus’ issue positions and a widget that allows the user to view a Google map of the boundaries to Alabama’s 6^th district.  A moving slideshow dominates the main page, which includes photos and links involving Spencer Bachus' activities. These photos are a mix of both DC images and local images.  A menu near the top of the page does provide a list of constituency services under the heading “Helping You”.  Bachus is neither portraying himself as an insider or an outsider with this webpage.

      Bachus does not have an obvious personal website.  His Twitter account only lists bachus.house.gov in the links section.  The only other website I was able to find, that was not overtly run by a PAC, was www.spencerbachus.com.  Although this is a re-election website, it appears, at least at first glance, to be run by Bachus’ campaign manager.  This website falls strictly under Gulati’s neutral imagery category.  The only images are a picture of Spencer dressed in business-casual attire set to a backdrop of the American flag.   The links from the main page all appeared to be efforts to either elicit help with the campaign or to increase re-election constituency support.  For example, several articles were about endorsements won by Bachus and at least one was an article stating that a judge did not believe Bachus violated any laws concerning his ongoing insider trading investigation.

Both of Bachus' websites take a very neutral stance on the insider/outsider continuum.  Additionally, both websites are not dominated by the red Republican colors that one might suspect for a congressman that represents an exceptionally conservative district.  This trend of neutrality seems to be consistent with Alabama Senator Richard Shelby.  Shelby’s Senate webpage has a large Alabama state flag as his background, but at the same time the foreground shows a picture, stamped with the seal of the United States, of Shelby sitting inside The Capital building.  Jeff Sessions’ website however, is very skewed towards local/state “outsider” imagery.  The masthead includes a massive picture of what I am assuming is the USS Alabama.  The first link on his navigation bar is to “Constituent Services”, and the only other major images are Sessions posing with some construction workers and the seal of Alabama.  Session’s official site, unlike the other two Republicans Bachus and Shelby, is dominated by a red color scheme.  Interestingly, Sessions is the only one of the three whose Twitter avatar is not a portrait.  It is instead what appears to be his Senate seat, which would qualify as an “insider” image.

In conclusion, representatives of Alabama generally seem to prefer a balance between outsider and insider imagery.  Gulati’s findings seemed to suggest that Republicans do not favor insider or outsider, so these websites are consistent with that finding.  Bachus is doing a good job emulating Alabama’s Senators, should his intention be to one day attempt to reach for the next level.

Battle for Senate??

Is it possible that the Republican party can win back the Senate? Republicans think that it is a possibility and know that taking control is critical.

The Battle for Senate

Political ads distorting their opponent actual words

This political ads ran by Democrat incumbents Alan Grayson campaign against Republican challenger Daniel Webster for the 8th Congressional district in Florida 2010 midterm election during a time when the Democrats were facing a political catastrophes especially incumbents and anyone associated with the Democrats. Rep. Alan Grayson completely distorted his Republican Challenger Daniel Webster words saying we had a radical Taliban agenda that he wanted to imposed on American which was not true. He also said that Challenger Daniel Webster wants to make divorce illegal, prohibit alimony to adulterous wife, voted to deny abuse women health care and their right to divorce their abusers, force abuse women to have their children's whether rape or not.
Daniel actual word was to his wife telling her not to pick the word in the Bible that say she should summit to him, but she should pick the once she can do. Also as regard to the freedom we enjoyed today he said it is not actually free because many lost their lives for us to have such freedom, but his words were taking out of context earning top place in the Worst political ads of 2010.  He is right about everything he said, I don't why political parties often used their opponent wrongly for political gain, but it work.

http://youtu.be/YLVhttp://youtu.be/YLVCR05VdDA

analysis from Rep. John Olver and Senator John Kerry

The official websits for Rep. John W. Oliver and Senator John Kerry are compeletly different, although both individuals represents the citizens of Massachusetts at the federal level. Rep. John W.Olver website which says "proudly serving the people of Massachusetts 1st district" is very personal. These word are very specific targerting the people of the 1st district because they are the people he represent in Congress. The use of such logo allowed rep. John W. Olver to show some personal connection to his district and to those whom he serve.  Although he is an elected mrmber from the state of Massachusetts, he has more to gain from the 1st district then the rest of the state therefore he most have personal connections with those he represent if he want to stay in office. Also his website show disrtict one as the focus point and his homestyle shows him speaking to people in small town in district 1, not the entire state.
Nevertheless, Senator John Kerry offical website is very broad showing that he represents the entire state of Massachusetts. He dose not have the luxuries to campaign in only one district on his website like rep. John Oliver because every citizens of Massachusetts are his constituencies. His website is very broad because it most appeal to all his voters. His homestyle shows him talking to people across the ststes.

          

Chris Murphy's Webstyle

Chris Murphy is definitely trying to illustrate his strong home style on his website. The congressman from Connecticut posts pictures of himself with scenic, nature backgrounds from the Connecticut area while also showing himself being more hands on with his approach to the working class in his district. There are pictures of him with the working man, with children and doesn't really show any Washington photo's. There is an emphasis on representing the 5th district as appose to representing a general party in the government. 

The two members of the Senate from Connecticut are Joe Lieberman (who is retiring) and Richard Blumenthal. I found Lieberman's site to be a little vain and also slightly boring. Every image that pulls up on the Lieberman website is a close up of the Senator with random gestures on his face (from laughing to his serious tough face). It would appear he wants an image of the Big Man in the White House getting things done as appose to being a Connecticut guy.

Blumenthal, on the other hand, has a definitive man in Washington appeal to his website. Though his website goes on to mention payroll tax cuts in Connecticut there is much imagery of the Senator in Washington as appose to his home state.

I would also like to rank the three men in the category of, "How much Blue is on their homepage"

1. Leiberman (boat loads of blue)

2. Blumenthal (enough blue to prove a point)

3. Chris Murphy (believes in brown)

All and all it seems Murphy has an agenda of working with the middle class and making it an important issue. Lieberman has a much bigger agenda such as the stance on Iran and don't ask don't tell policies. Blumenthal is more concerned with the lowering of taxes and apparently is against on line piracy which loses me.

Blumenthal also has the most boring website with Lieberman having a well crafted homepage that is the easiest to access and surf.

Take the Money and Run for Office

Last week Ira Glass's This American Life devoted it's entire program to the United States campaign finance system focusing on congressional elections. Some of the episode contains data analysis performed by a political scientist (Lee Drutman), a nod toward the much welcomed trend of data journalism. Results of the data analysis are interspersed with clips of members of Congress telling stories which support the results. It's a powerful discussion. The episode wraps up with a joint interview of John McCain and Russ Feingold talking about their disgust with Citizens United.

The podcast version of the radio broadcast is available to stream at the link above and I recommend listening to the whole thing. It is worth your time. The This American Life blog has also posted an extended version of the McCain-Feingold segment along with a transcript.

female insiders and outsiders

What was interesting to me about Gulati's research on politician's websites was the observation of more female democratic politicians having the "outsider" style of website where as republican female politicians tended to have more of the "insider" style. 

I am researching Jackie Speier of California's 12th district for my project so I scanned her website for the outsider style since she is a Dem and it was very apparent. Local pictures and images that aren't "national" were everywhere to be found. I decided to continue comparing her website to other female Democrats and had similar findings.

I then briefly researched female republican representatives from California for the "insider" website style and was surprised at my findings. I couldn't necessarily tell GOPs and Dems a part by their website. The female republican representatives I browsed had mostly local images, few having anything directly relating to Washington.

This was very interesting to me since it went against Gulati to a certain extent, but then again I only did a very small comparison. Below, links to various female democratic and republican leaders are included.

DEMS

Doris Matsui her site

Lynn W. her site

Nancy Pelosi her site

Barbra Lee her site

Jackie Speier her site

Anna G. Eshoo her site

Zoe Lofgren her site

GOP

Mary Bono Mack her site

Connie Conway her site

Shannon Grove her site

Linda Halderman her site

Diane Harky her site

Simple is Good: Jared Huffman

This is an ad for Jared Huffman who is running for the open 2nd Congressional district in California. This ad stood out to me for it's simplicity. He is standing in front of a beautiful Harbor which plays into "home-style" campaigning. There aren't any gimmicks, just him, a clean blue shirt and the harbor. He talks about the importance of job creation, ending wars and reducing the deficit. The "zooming in" from 0:17-0:23 seconds and 5:01-5:08 is nice dramatic touch.

Marcy Kaptur's Web Style

The home page of Democratic Congresswoman Marcy Kapturs’s official website is fairly dull and boring. She uses national images; she is pictured in a dull blue suit with the Capitol building in Washington, and a flag blowing in the wind behind her. The US. House of Representatives seal is in the corner. Her official website conveys the image that Marcy is all business. This goes along with Guliatis findings about how women, Democrats, as well senior members of congress, all qualities that pertain to Mrs. Kaptur, will often present themselves as insiders. Marcy’s campaign website is more colorful, red, white and blue, but mostly blue. Marcy is even wearing a pink suit, and the only symbol used is a flag. Official Website

Schock's Presentation of Self

Aaron Schock's website most definitely portrays a local representation or "Washington Outsider."  A visitor to the website is immediately met with a wallpaper background of Schock dressed casually in a cornfield (complete with a wind turbine) interacting with a presumable constituent.  As Gulati depicts, Schock's website is consistent with the majority of Republican web presentations.  Schock's site remains relatively neutral as far as images and color scheme, but in a district that hasn't elected a democrat in almost 80 years I don't think he is too worried about it.http://aaronschock.com/

Ed Perlmutter's Website

Gulati describes there congressman can be grouped into three groups national, local, or neutral. Ed Perlmutter’s website has a more local look to it but he does slip some national feel to it as well. The first impression Perlmutter makes that he wants to hear the people and wants to help. He shares in his pictures that he cares about his constituents. Showing pictures with families and different groups of individuals.  His Website also shows that he has an outsider feel to it having the back of the people within his district before Washington. The page show that his ideology is democrat by the color it is blue.  The page also lets people navigate in getting to know their representative and showing them that he wants to help.
Ed Perlmutter

Bachmann and MN Senators Web Style

http://bachmann.house.gov/

Michelle Bachmann’s web page surprised in several ways. One in the way that it only includes very little red in the color scheme and includes much more yellow and a purple like color. I was thinking this may be an attempt to use the local sports teams color to make the website seem less political and more that Bachmann is just another average Minnesotan. Every single one of her photos and videos right now is about her public stance on how terrible she believes “Obamacare” is. There is also a direct link on the front page to the tea party caucus and shows her Tea Party movement affiliation.

http://www.franken.senate.gov/

Al Franken’s website includes a color scheme closer tied to the Democratic party and is laid out very similar to the Star Tribune’s (the Minneapolis-St. Paul newspaper) website. Al’s website focuses more on what Al’s done as Senator it appears than what he opposes or supports with Obama.

http://klobuchar.senate.gov/

Amy Klobuchar’s website actually uses a similar color scheme to that of Bachmann’s website but the font is much smaller and there is a lot more things on the home page. The website seems very bland and quite frankly that seems spot on because Klobuchar has been known to be a boring candidate when running for the Senate.

Rep. Steve King Iowa's 5th and Web Sites for the Greatest Generation

Rep. Steve King of Iowa's 5th has a very little web style or web presence.
At first glance all the colors are blue on both his campaign and
congressional site which seems to be a very unusual message to send
since both King and his constituency tend be very conservative. Each
opens with a small pop-up showing King at a podium speaking in an
attempt to reflect his strength and power but all of these images are
shown with no Washington D.C. Iconic monuments in the background.
The only backgrounds of note in any of the images on either of King's
sites are of Iowan farms, country side and wind generators. This is
clearly an attempt to portray himself as a Washington outsider
focused more on his district than on his power in Washington D.C. No
matter how closely you analyze either of King's web pages neither of
them seems very different which is evidence that may lead one to
believe that King's constituency may not care a whole lot about his
“web style.” Rep. King can be found in multiple video clips
proclaiming his district to be the eldest in all of the U.S thus it
would stand to reason that the majority of these older folks in far
flung rural Western Iowa may not even have consistent access to the
world wide web. Both pages do open up with a banner that addresses
Steve King's number one priority which is repealing Obamacare which
is often a fun talking point for elderly people who ironically depend
on socialized medical healthcare provided via the federal government.
I conclude that both the “plain Jane,” minimal look of King's sites plus the
bashing of healthcare reform are signs that King's district is elder
and very conservative. If he were seeking to appeal to his party and
marginal supporters that may not even show up on election day he
would be attempting to engineer a more complex web presence that
reflected his very conservative ideology but because he is safe he
does not have to spend the time or money. If so King's approach is
appropriate because a candidate should not waste their resources on
activities and investments that are not going to accomplish the goal
of advancing future victories.

Republicans shift away from marriage to concentrate on salient issues

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0312/74661.html

Republican leadership has decided to keep legislation about marriage off of Congress' floor.  The author believes this may be a political strategy due to the fact that moral issues have taken a back seat in the national eye to fiscal issues.

It would be interesting to look at whether or not individual districts are actually shifting their stance on gay marriage or if there is just a national shift.

CBC Wants Better Laws to Protect African Americans from Guns?

The Congressional Black Caucus is pushing for a committee that will investigate the laws that have been evoked in defense of George Zimmerman after shooting Treyvon Martin. This proposed commission would look into economic disparity which continues to plague the African American community and analyze the statistics behind the large numbers of boys and men who have been killed before their time.

This whole situation is horrible for everybody involved. Clearly Zimmerman's community felt threatened by the recent rash of break-ins and anyone who lives in Metro Milwaukee and relate to property theft but at the same time the Sanford Police have previously attempted to hide 911 tapes from the public and sweep the affair through the system as quickly and quietly as possible. Was George Zimmerman attacked? Perhaps the only person who could ever 100% corroborate that story is dead.

So what can be accomplished at this point by the CBC in trying to form this committee? I worry it furthers the divisive politics and images that encouraged the circumstances under which Treyvon Martin's death occurred. I think that the CBC often goes undistinguished by the majority of people from the Democratic Party as a whole. This could be a wedge issue that the Republicans jump all over to attempt to tear away some Caucasian votes from the Democrats . I am also not 100% sure that outline of research for this potential committee has not been attempted previously. CBC Democrats usually do not have to worry about their reelection safety because their districts are going to vote for them with or without a committee but other democrats in split districts or where gun rights are accepted by both ideologies this proposal could be detrimental.

This is what our(Wisconsinites) senator said...

“Today, I'm happy to announce my full support and my endorsement of Governor Romney to be the next president of the United States." I just thought you all might be interested in this bit of information. Sen. Johnson said he wasn't intending on supporting anyone but was persuaded by Romney through various conversations they had had.

redistricting redistricing redistricting.

This article describes the newly created competitive districts that have been formed due to the drawing of new lines. This is a topic we discussed in class and I think this article is a great example of how manipulating the lines may result in a completely new election. The last paragraph on the first page of the article explains how this particular map was constructed.

Oh, the Buffett Rule

This article speaks to Obama's pressure on Congress to pass the "Buffet Rule" and strive for economic fairness in the United States. The article suggests that Republicans believe this is a "gimmick"being pulled by Democrats to reel in voters. Although I am probably the farthest from Republican, I have a similar vantage point. When it comes to money, both Republican  and Democratic politicians  tend to be wealthy and I tend to believe there really isn't a dichotomous ideology per party on this subject. This concept is reflected in the article when it mentioned that two republicans voted for the rule and four Dems voted in opposition.

Another budget show down?l

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0312/74662.htm

Will the republicans be able to pass a budget? Will the senate agree? My guess is they won't get close to passing this budget through the house much less the senate with out major revisions. Ryan is too willing to cut local funding for pet projects for his own people.

Rangel asks colleagues for help

This article is a good example of a representatives need for monetary support from their colleagues. New York Rep. Charles Rangel is facing a tough primary, and is asking his fellow members of congress for support, even though he was unable to contribute to their recent campaigns. Rangel points out that he had given plenty in the past. The letter he wrote to his colleagues is included in the article.
Rangel asks colleagues for help

Forecasting Congressional Elections

Political scientist Alan Abramowitz has released a forecast of the upcoming congressional elections:

Based on the most recent polling results, which show a near tie on the generic ballot and a net presidential approval (approval minus disapproval) of close to zero, the House forecasting model predicts a very small Democratic seat gain (2-3 seats) in the House but not nearly the 25 seats Democrats would need to take back control of the House. On the other hand, the Senate forecasting model gives Republicans a good chance to regain control of the Senate with an expected pickup of 6-7 seats. That is due almost entirely to the fact that Republicans are defending only 10 Senate seats this year while Democrats are defending 23 seats.

Abramowitz uses a simple aggregate model based on national public opinion data that doesn't take into account local conditions such as the recent redistricting or measure of incumbent vulnerability, but I think a forecasting model like this makes for a nice baseline to understand the role of campaign effects and other idiosyncrasies that will play out over the next 7+ months.

Gwen Moore Recounts Her Rape Ordeal

Gwen Moore Recounts Her Rape Ordeal. 

Our very own Gwen Moore is getting some attention! Wooohooo!!!!

Recent Hearing to Stop USPS Bleed Out

This article outlines the current situations with the United States Postal Service and a recent hearing that was held to consider which options going forward can be used to stem the almost 5 billion dollars per year that the service is losing. House Democrats are asking the Postmaster General for steady attrition rather than whole sale layoffs while Republicans are begging for an instant lowering of the head count. This article states that many employees will be offered a $25,000 early buy out. It also says that one of the main factors in the USPS' current loses was the mandated prefunding of retirement health care costs.

There also is a Senate bill full of fixes that is set for debate but this particular article does not go into very much detail of the Senate Bill's content.

It will be interesting to see which members support what fixes considering that in some districts USPS has large scale operations that employee many people. In other lightly populated areas there is the possibility that USPS may be the only game in town. Ideology will also clearly play a roll in M.C.'s stances on these approaches as the article outlines.

Delaying Highway Funding Bill

With construction season quickly approaching House Democrats moved to stand against a Republican backed 3 month extension of the current highway program funding. House Democrats urged House Republicans to consider the bipartisan Senate bill that had recently passed which would extend highway programs for another 2 years. Rep. Eric Cantor explains in this article that given the current financial crisis facing the federal government there is no way to responsibly pass the Senate bill. But I think Eric Cantor says that about everything. I could see him saying that to his wife when she wants to buy name brand frozen vegetables at one of the many Krogers in Virginia's 7th district. Although his wife Diana is a lawyer and hard core liberal so I think she does whatever she wants.

Republican Suggests Moving GOP by Support Democrats

When Richard Hanna, a Republican member of Congress, told women at a pro-choice rally to donate to Democrats it wasn't quite like encouraging human sacrifice or arguing that dogs and cats should live together, but it was close.

Hanna:

I'll tell you this: Contribute your money to people who speak out on your behalf, because the other side -- my side -- has a lot of it. And you need to send your own message. You need to remind people that you vote, you matter, and that they can't succeed without your help.

Is this a courageous (or dare I say mavericky act) by Hanna? Or is this party treason? What does this incident tell us about Hanna or perhaps the nature representation more broadly?

Members of Congress Taking a Position (at the Line of Scrimmage)

Richard Durbin (D-IL) is getting together a Senate Judiciary Committee inquiry into the recent NFL mini-scandal over the cash incentives players on the New Orleans Saints were given to hurt opposing players.

The NFL surely seems to be on top of punishing the misbehavior, but members of Congress regularly use the spotlight afforded to sports in order to engage in Mayhew-style credit claiming and position taking over issues that are relatively uncontroversial. There are probably few voters who are for injury causing styles of play in football making this an easy issue to take a tough stand on while getting some face time on SportsCenter. Who can forget the uncomfortable answers that Mark McGwire gave in 2005 to the House Government Reform Committee during his testimony at the hearings into steroids and baseball?

Perhaps this time around we'll get to see Brett Favre testify about what it feels like to know he had a bounty on his head?

Classic Overreach by Reyes

EDIT 3/23 No summary or intro to post? Related. I am mystified why so many of you paste links into the body and not the link bar. I like the pretty things people...

Retirement

Representative David Dreier is one of the 20 House members to be pushed into retirement because of the redistricting. There are also incumbent are going to have to face in a fight with challengers that they have not done in awhile.

Retirement

Michelle Bachmann Campaign Ad

Michelle Bachman Campaign Ad


EDIT What no comment/intro/summary?

Rep. Steve King Ad

This is the only ad for the current 2012 election that King's campaign has put up on its youtube account. It is an interesting ad called "It's my water, it's my shower head," which I believe is designed to show Rep. King as a rebel who is willing to "drill out," his "Al Gore," shower head that makes his showers take 12 minutes instead of three and that this act of civil disobedience should be followed by all. It is inexpensive, that is for sure, but I'm not really sure how effective it is. I suppose if the slowness of shower heads is a real salient issue for you as the voter this would be a very important message.

Here is an ad from Americans United against Steve King's choice on voting for a bill that would overhaul the medicare system that was a "form," add which was used for multiple politicians in multiple areas.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ma-mEGMC1TM

Aaron Schock's TV ad

Apparently Aaron Schock has no white constituents in his district?? This ad speaks for itself.  As stated in class, race can play a major role in campaigns/elections and that is easily captured in television television ads. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y9xJ5N6shEg

Spencer Bachus isn't a fan of Obamacare

Spencer Bachus appealing to the anti-Obama vote

Bachus Campaign Ad

Roscoe Reynolds Campaign ad

A pretty funny hate campaign ran against senator Bill Stanley in North Virginia. I, in particular, enjoy the fantastic graphic of Senator Stanley's one man UPS moving crew across the state.

Ed Perlmutter Colorado Rep. Ads

These are ads for Ed Perlmutter, the first one is a negative ad and the second is a positive ad. The first ad is all about how Perlmutter is okay with spending the people’s money to bail out Wall Street and he does it with a smile. He is a man who is always smiling even when he is hurting the Colorado people.

"Pure Pelosi"

The second ad is about how Perlmutter is such a good man that he even hears you out in the grocery store. This is taken from a community setting and showing that he is just like us and wants to listen to our problems and help you. Even though republicans know he is a democrat he still takes the time to listen.

Grocery

Schawosky

This is an ad for the Rep. I chose to do my paper on. The obvious theme is focus on your average middle class American. She probably made this ad because the economy was a major issue in 2010 (as it is now) and by focusing on the economy she may be alleviating some of the negative pressure that comes with having a president from your party in a bad economy.

Marcy Kaptur 2012

Marcy Kaptur "Service 2012"

In this 2012 ad, Marcy Kaptur is trying to show that she is not your typical representative; money is not important to her, she is committed to public service, to helping her constituents. Here, Marcy is standing in front of her modest childhood home (and current home) in attempts to relate to her constituents, to show that even though she is a member of congress, she is still just like them.

 

John Boehner Sighs

John Boehner:

We got 435 members. It's just a slice of America, it really is. We got some of the smartest people in the country who serve here, and some of the dumbest. We got some of the best people you'd ever meet, and some of the raunchiest. We've got 'em all.

On being Speaker of the House:

People think I've got this job as a leader. They don't realize that I have about 200 responsibilities and roles. I've gotta be the big brother, the father, I gotta be the disciplinarian, the dean of students, the principal, the spouse—you can't believe all the roles that I have to play! But one of them is, you know, some problems you can nip early. I had three guys in here a few years ago, I said "Boys, you're cruising down the wrong path." Two of them listened, one of them didn't. He's no longer here.

More in the Wall Street Journal.

Average Dem. Incumbent loss of Vote Share Due to Healthcare Reform

Interesting article that outlines a recent study showing that the average incumbent Congressional Democrat lost 5.8 percent of the vote due to their voting for healthcare reform. I am skeptical of this stat, how often have you heard a partisan voter throw up a lame excuse for not having voted for the opposing ideology? At least 5% of the time I presume.

Rep. Hoyer Reads the Tea Leaves- Sees Big Win for House Dems.

Rep. Hoyer today predicted that if the economy continues to improve at the current pace up until November that not only will Pres. Obama be reelected but the Dems would regain a majority in the House. Rep. Hoyer is really one of the first members of the Democratic party to make such a bold prediction but if national unemployment drops under 8% who is going to argue with him?

JOBS Passes but Who Wins?

Although Rep. Cantor regarded the passing of the JOBS bill as a "as a significant bipartisan achievement and noted that the House action shows that even in an election year, legislative victories are possible," there remains debate of which party gets credit for the bill.  With reps constantly under the gun to legislate, I guess politics can never truley escape any type of achievements or progress in Congress. Especially with upcoming elections each side is stating its case, even though the success of the bill is to be determined. Very short-sided logic.http://www.rollcall.com/news/with_jobs_bills_passage_both_parties_tussle_for_credit-212989-1.html?pos=hatxt

"Joe the Plumber" to face Rep. Kaptur in Ohio race

Incumbent Democratic Rep. Dennis Kucinich losses to 15 term Democratic incumbent after redistricting moved their districts together. Now that the Ohio Primary is over, Democrat Rep. Marcy Kaptur is now facing off against the Republican Primary winner Samuel Wurzelbacher. Wurzelbacher, also known as "Joe The Plumber," faces a major challenge as the district is heavily dominated by democratic voters. Despite this challenge, Wurzelbacher has promised a clean and fair campaign and wants to win on the facts. It will be interesting to see if this strategy will hold out in the long run as he runs against the long time House incumbent Kaptur.

Scouting and political leanings

How much does the early exposure to certain social environments shape later life choices? Especially so much so, that there is a disproportionate representation of Eagle Scouts in a very, very  select field such as congressional representation.(paragraph 5)

2012 fundraising: Congressional races get more attention from GOP

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0312/73622_Page3.html

This recent article in Politico discusses the upcoming elections. In part due to the long drawn out primary season, and the lack of the Republican Presidential Candidates ability to inspire and motivate their base, Republicans are becoming concerned about their chances of winning the White House, and are becoming more focused on winning the upcoming congressional elections, and on maintaining their majority in the house. On the other hand Democrats are becoming more optimistic than last year about their chances of maintaining the White House and the possibility of a obtaining a majority in both houses. However, there appears to be a consensus, an agreement between both parties that the 2012 elections will be a tight race.

On Their Own

Echoing our readings on candidate-centered elections, Politico reports that Barack Obama's reelection campaign has informed Democratic leaders in Congress that they will receive limited financial support for their own electoral efforts. Holding on to the funds that congressional leaders otherwise had been expecting is being taken as a sign that the Obama campaign needs every last dollar in their own battle.

Illegal Campaign?

How far do Congressmen go to really go fundraise to receive money? It seems here that the pressure may have gotten U.S. Rep. Michael Grimm where there was illegal campaign contributions made from a New York Rabbi made or threaten to give. The FBI is considering opening an investigation concerning the allegations.
New York Congressman's Fundraising

Endorsing Mitt Romney

The House Majority leader, Eric Cantor, is putting his endorsement to Mitt Romney. He also believes that Romney will win all of Virgina's Republican delegates coming this Tuesday. Cantor believes that Romney has the best plan for the future. This endorsement will sure help and possible persuade others in believing in Romney as well.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/mar/4/house-majority-leader-cantor-endorses-romney/

Creating a More Partisan Senate

This article talks about the Olympia Snowe's decision to not run again for her seat. This article also speaks to the pattern of moderate congressmen and congresswomen not seeking reelection. The article suggests that this will lead to Republicans having a more difficult time winning control of the Senate now. Another interesting comment in this article is from Lindsey Graham, R-South Carolina who says that Olympia Snowe retired because there was no further light for her at the end of the tunnel in terms of the Senate.

Not About Congress But I Posted it Anyway

If the Republican Presidential candidates are hoping to do well over the course of of the new few months this article highlights some of the vulnerabilites and challenges they must face in order to make it through to elections!!

Four Candidates and the Next Four Months

Edited to add a title (hey it was missing one).

Dicks to leave Congress

I just felt like I had to post this one. Anyhow beyond a great title for a post Rep. Dicks' Washington counterpart in the Senate, Sen. Patty Murray, described Dicks as a "Washington state institution!" I do not doubt that.... Furthermore if you read between the lines in this article it sounds like Dicks has grown tired of the grind after 18 terms.

Weird Interview for Rhode Island's Senate Seat

I happened to see this article on Facebook. Watch the video on the lower portion of the article where Republican candidate Barry Hinckley gives an interview with his 5 year old son at his side. It seems as if his attempt to use his son as an advantage backfires into a pretty uncomfortable interview.

Birth Control Amendment Rejected by Senate

The Republican minority leader added this onto the transportation funding bill. It looks like he was trying to add another dimension to the transportation bill hoping he would get what he wanted with the birth control amendment. It still didn't work out for him.

EDITED to clean up that ugly mess of a link.... People!

That Lunch Table Shrinks (Again)

Olympia Snowe (ME-R) one of the few remaining moderates in the Senate has announced her plans to retire:

Unfortunately, I do not realistically expect the partisanship of recent years in the Senate to change over the short term.... So at this stage of my tenure in public service, I have concluded that I am not prepared to commit myself to an additional six years in the Senate, which is what a fourth term would entail.

The Washington Post suggests that with an open seat election the Democrats will be favored to take the seat this November.

Midterm on Wednesday

As promised, here is a study guide for our Midterm Exam.

Richard Lugar, the Grandfather of the Indiana GOP, fights for reelection

Richard Lugar fights for reelection

This article about 7 time incumbent GOP representative out of Indiana, Richard Lugar fights for another election. It presses on the difficulty of not only winning the election but winning the primary as well. Lugar, long-time incumbent now know as a "Washingtonian" more than an Indiana Hoosier still has the ability to outfinance his competition but fights to prove that he still worries about the issues that press the constituents of Indiana, even though he's lived in Washington for so long. I think this brings up a lot of the issues we discussed in class, like how incumbents win a strong majority of the time, especially when the article states that Lugar hasn't been involved in a close race since 1972!

Santorum Makes Case for Religion in Public Sphere

Santorum who has been consistently been reaching out to the "religious right" as he tries to gain support and how this will be received by voters. Things have definatly gotten fiery between Santorum and Romney as both leading Republicans try and "challenge the depth of the other's conservatism".

Edited to make it pretty – mtofias.

"Road" Island Lampoon of Joe Biden

I'm not sure why V.P. Joe Biden saying goofy stuff would be very shocking at this point but this is an interesting attempt to associate Joe's general extracurricular goofiness with Sen. Whitehouse. Republican candidate Barry Hinckley's campaign posted this video Wednesday night, and though it is hard to tell, it appears Hinckley's people are trying to highlight a gaffe in a White House release that mentioned V.P. Biden's visit to "Road" Island. I decided to post this link because I'm not sure what this ad accomplishes? It is really kind of uncomfortable to watch.

re: Harry Reid, U.S. Senate Majority Leader

"Reid looks to stick around"

This article is about the U.S. Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid; the 72-year-old Democratic Nevada Senator still has five years left on his current term, and plans to remain leader of Democrats in U.S. Senate even if the Democrats lose their majority. Most of Reid’s Democratic colleagues support him, and his leadership role. Republican colleagues, however see Reid as a “polarizing leader” who refuses to let the U.S. Senate do its job. This article shows the importance of the leadership roles in the U.S. Senate, and the control and power the majority enjoys.

Intra-party struggles

This isn't a topic we have directly talked about, but intra-party negotiations are part of coalitions and win sets.  It is interesting to see that the GOP continues to have issues utilizing its majority in the House due to party infighting.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0212/72978_Page2.html

Representative Vulnerability

Good Example of some of the inherent difficulties in running for congress and keeping the job.  Massachusetts democrat and freshman rep. Bill Keating narrowly won his 2010 primary over an ex-state senator and squeaked out a victory over a republican.  As if getting elected as a rookie wasn't hard enough, Keating was redistricted having to change his residency and gainined some new constituents.  Now he is already facing opposition within his own party for another primary battle in 2012.  Although Keating will technically have the incumbent advantage, winning another primary and election seems expensive.  And with our governments short terms and frequent elections Keating has probably already started campaigning for 2012 since he was elected 2 years agohttp://atr.rollcall.com/massachusetts-bill-keating-dodges-serious-three-way-primary-in-new-district/.  

Debate on an Issue

Surprise, surprise individuals in Congress are disagreeing with each other and some with President Obama. There are so many issues where not everyone is going to have the same preference. There will be individuals who are further away from the status quo and believe that their opinion is the right one and should be the status quo. Here they are debating over whether President Obama is “attempting to force contraception.” The two members who disagree with each other are Paul Ryan, Wisconsin and Chris Van Hollen, Maryland. Ryan says that it is not about the contraception but this will hurt and spread into our First Amendment rights.  http://www.politico.com/blogs/politico-live/2012/02/paul-ryan-chris-van-hollen-clash-over-obama-contraception-114947.html

Upsetting the apple cart?

Repeal the Voting Right Act

How many of the representatives that aren't from these states, are truly willing to risk upsetting the apple cart and vote on a limited scope issue and risk the wrath of minority groups and risk losing a re-election campaign?

In my opinion, none. This is an issue that if you get painted as a racist, there is little to no chance of re-election.

The public doesn't know the truth

An article about the simple fact that there are people who don't know the rules governing the senate. These rules make changes to a what is meets the criteria of win set when they are employed in this manner.

Here is an article about the Super PACs and the impact that it has had on political opponents. It highlights that the mudslinging can lead even the most honorable legislators to compromise in order to gain support, while incumbent positions can come under fire if not backed by the super PACs. 

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0212/72922.html

Another Look at Citizens United

Looks like Congressional Dems are going to try to get the IRS to investigate PACs to make sure they are breaking the 51% barrier of spending in their budgets in areas other than political activity. My stance is that each viewpoint has its own funding so I do not see a problem with the money in politics but clearly Dems in Congress do.

Single-minded seekers of re-election

Can Congress Ever Restore Payroll Taxes to Their Usual Levels?

The fight to extend the payroll tax cuts has put some congressional Republicans in a tough spot. Republican's usually favor tax cuts, but many have expressed concern that extending the payroll tax cuts will only add to the federal deficit. However a vote against extending the payroll tax cut, which puts money back in the pockets of workers would be politically unwise. This is an example of representatives as single-minded seekers of re-election, here the congressional Democrats benefit.

Republicans’ Bid to Extend Tax Cut May Shift Blame to Democrats

Now that the holiday season is over, here we go again. U.S. House Republican leaders proposed to vote this week to extend a payroll-tax cut that may move blame back in the direction of Democrats if they don't go for it. This can about after Republicans dropped their demand for spending cuts to offset the lost tax revenue through renewing the cut. However, overall discussions on cutting spending continues to go on separate of the payroll tax cut proposal. A move will have to be made before February 29th when it expires.

UPDATE 4-Obama birth-control rule stokes election-year fight

House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner denounced President Barack Obama's new rule on contraceptives stating it was an attack on religious freedom and is vowing to overturn it. This seemed to only fuel the outcry from religious leaders in the Catholic Church and social conservatives over a requirement that they will be forced to provide health insurance plans that offer birth control to women. I wonder how much this issue might become part of reelection campaigns in Congress as well as for President.

Who is electable?

Why don't Americans elect scientists

I found this to be a very interesting article on who is considered electable and what makes an American politician. I found that combining the middle, often sound byte (technical spelling intentional) adverse, positions that scientists take on issues with the drive to the extreme of the current parties in the primaries held for most elections makes a scientist unelectable in most current political elections. A house election where there is a bi-annual need to prove one's loyalty to the party, is the opposite of what most sciencetists want to do.

Vulnerable Incumbent MoC

Hey, this ties in well with the article we read about the vulnerable american politician.  The intro is a little confusing because it refers to the 2010 election and how people who did not lose their seats are still vulnerable, but then lists 5 republican house members, so that is a little strange.  It is nonetheless interesting to see their reasons as to why each seat is vulnerable.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0212/72819.html

Trustees Vs Delegates, Wisconsin Edition

Following up on our discussion of the different role types available to representatives, here is an example of Wisconsin legislators choosing or perhaps more accurately being asked by their leaders to behave as trustees:

Republican lawmakers were told: "Public comments on this map may be different than what you hear in this room. Ignore the public comments."

However, the JSO reporting suggests that there seems to be a lack of clarity if the instructions were related to a de facto suggestion for role types or merely an indication of a media strategy.

First Nuclear Reactors in 30 years

U.S. Federal regulators approved the first two new power plants in 30 years to be built in Georgia. With this major shift in policy for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission I am wondering if there is any political positioning involved with the timing of this. Pres. Obama and many who have been elected to Congress over the past 3 election cycles have said that they agree with a balanced energy policy to move the U.S. from a fossil fuel based system, does this move provide some political cover for them going into November?

Three-state sweep by Santorum bolsters his case

Even though this doesn't regard a Congressional Race, I think its important to keep an eye on what's happening in the Presidential Race as it can effect the outcome of House and Senate races. Plus, with these three wins behind him, will Santorum be able to launch himself back into range of the top two spots. I find it all very interesting and I can't wait to see how it all plays out.

Retirement Funds

We've talked briefly about the importance of retirements in the process of incumbent exit from Congress. But we know it's really all about the Benjamins. So what happens to all of that campaign contribution dough that an outgoing incumbent has balled-up in a war chest? From Roll Call, we learn that While a retiring member of Congress is allowed to use the money for charity or save it for a potential future campaign, much of the money ends up with their co-partisan legislators and their parties' campaign committees.

Of course we'll be talking more about retirements and money in congressional campaigns later in the semester.

And We're Back!